Probably
you're familiar with the following quotes:
A. Be greedy when others are fearful
B. Buy wonderful business at a fair price rather than a good business at
wonderful price
C. Buy consumer monopoly
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1. The first quote applied to recession period, when they all dumped shares of
all companies. This period was a wonderful time to pick stocks. Perhaps this
could also occur during a period of confusion.
-> buying big banks during this period would be a sure shot for all
investors. Banks would be down significantly because of recession, too.
2. For the second quote, I prefer to buy shares of a good company under dumping
process. For example, I liked BAC better than WFC; however, I had to be patient
for the Countrywide’s [bought by BAC] storm over. Buying wonderful business
would keep your portfolio stably up all the times, i.e. good feelings. I think,
BAC would deliver something like additional 2 billions of US dollars per
quarter saving from litigation. Its performance should be close to WFC as well
as market capital. Both are US major banks.
-> The main different between the first case and second case was return on
investment. In the first case, we could get 50%-100% after a few years [even
stocks behave like a yoyo during this period] after that the performance would
rely on their business. The second case would give stable returns like 10%, 20%
a year for a long period of time if nothing went wrong.
-> If we could pick "turn around" or dumped companies every couple
of years, we would beat "wonderful business at fair price".
-> I didn't know which one would be double or the best times to buy a stock.
Unfortunately I didn't have a crystal ball.
3. Going to where the temporary issues were, e.g. 2014-02-17: Europe and
Russia, where are they're dumping all [good and wonderful] companies regardless
of profits or anything. We didn't create problems, but we take advantages of
those. I only believed that they would overcome their problems and delivered
good news in future. How would it happen? I leave this to governments over
there to deliver.
-> This is similar to the first and second quote. However we didn't stay
around with stocks in home country. Why? We shouldn't pay for over value
stocks. However, if home country's stocks were dumped ridiculously, we came
back. Basically we're searching for good deals.
-> I think, investors should go global to search for attractive investments.
Or we'd wait for another recession in home country (?), which might come in a
couple of years or more [nobody knows].
4. Buy company that has consumer monopoly advantage. It didn't work for
hospital sector even it was the only community hospital in the area. Anyway not
many companies had this factor. Somebody said railway, however if everybody
jumped in this sector -> over value.
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Anyway I didn't plan to beat professional investors. My objective for ROI was
much lower. I've only reserved a small portion of my portfolio for betting on
"turn-around" or dumped companies. Btw, banks were big organization,
so they'd come back one day.
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