People in USA debate whether federal government could make a call to reopen US economy or each State made call for their own economy.
The issues were both health safety and economy. Many US companies were focusing on growth, i.e. heavily relying on debts for revenue growth. They have to pay interests, but couldn't generate any revenues in this situation.
What will happen if reopening economy late enough? Waves of bankruptcy and permanent unemployment.
Currently we're facing temporary layoff, i.e. companies will recall their workforce gradually whenever governments allowed. Permanent layoff vs. temporary layoff issue.
It is not an easy call for many governments. Governments cannot print money for their citizens and business forever.
I am just wondering who should make the call to reopen economy in USA?
Federal government has access to overall data and facts including US Fed, Treasury, export and import figures, unemployment, business status, etc.
Local government (state) has local data including COVID-19 cases, local economy, etc.
Federal government could make a call to reopen economy to avoid permanent damages to US economy, but (example) California refused that request. California may get permanent damages to its local economy because of shutting down economy too long. Will US print money ONLY for Californians and its local business without objection from other States?
Everyone wish our economy got back to pre-COVID-19 instantly after economy reopening. However we've been frozen since March 15, 2020, i.e. 1 month with little economic activity.
How many things have been changed since?
At least some industries have been reorganized or restructured such as healthcare's supply providers. Some production of masks and ventilators has been established within borders.
Airline industries and hotel sectors have been hit hard. Tourism industries may be changing or adapting to new dynamics.
Oil industries got hit and people may change their habits of short trips by cars.
People have been shifted to shopping online to avoid lining up at stores due to physical distancing rules.
Those are a few changes in customers' dynamics, which would impact business, when they reopen in near future. Will they recall all staff at once or slowly recall core staff to figure out how to adapt to new business landscape? Will they recall all staff later or recruit new staff with relevant skills?
2020-04-15
Nobody had a crystal ball to determine the best day to reopen economy and maintain health safety to everyone.
I've read some articles mentioned that another wave of COVID-19 could happen in the future. How and why?
Can we freeze our economy for another month or two? When will permanent damages occur to our economy?
If you thought about all information/issues listed above, you should know that nobody wanted to make a call to reopen economy. Why?
-
If another wave of COVID-19 came after
reopening economy, that person would get all fire balls.
-
If authorized person didn’t make the call but
wait for months before reopening economy, the permanent economic damages could have
occurred. That person would also get all fire balls.
-
Delaying to reopen economy a few more months didn’t
guarantee that another wave of COVID-19 disappear, and then double doses of fire
balls would come anyway.
Permanent damages to economy could result in high unemployment rates. Printing money created high inflation. Wondering how to retrain work forces, and creating jobs, etc.
Anyway someone MUST make the call to reopen economy.
Speaking of US laws, I saw US President could sign an executive
order. Let assume that Donald Trump based on national and international data
collected by federal agencies, he made a call to reopen economy. Other States
could file law suits to freeze their local economy. That should be fine, and
state governor should be responsible for their actions.
I have been wondering sometimes with issues
flying around, and I don’t have solutions to those by the way.
2020-04-19
How about our economy?
2020-04-28
Ontario couldn't come up with concrete plan to reopen economy, because they're spending too much time listening to those incompetent health officials.
First of all, those health care officials had a chance to come up with physical distancing and economic shutting down for 5 weeks. The number of fatality and infected due to COVID-19 must come down, but it went up. This proved that their strategy didn't work. However health officials wanted to extend their strategies longer at the expense of other people's bread and butter (business and employment) for their own reputation and food.
Second, those health officials wanted to wait for vaccines available, which may take 18 months to develop. Nobody guaranteed vaccines, if any, would work on human. Those health officials dare not to volunteer in clinical trials. Why? Dough Ford was relying on those to make decisions on vital parts of Ontario's well being, i.e. health and economy?
Those health officials CARE about their own business, i.e. vaccines, medical treatment, COVID-19 test kits, pandemic policies, etc., but they ignore other business of employment. They're not on the same page as the rest of Ontarians.
Many things must be done in parallel based on data and facts that have been gathered since COVID-19 crisis. Data and facts have been changing every day with new findings.
COVID-19 test kits and vaccines must be done by Ontario's firms? Who demanded those? Which business? How long it would take (months or years)? and what is the expense?
So far, a South Korean firm had come up with a fast COVID-19 test kit, which was purchased by Americans. Ontario could purchase those (weeks). If they don't have capacity, we could pay royalty fees or license it to manufacture in Ontario, i.e. a couple of weeks. Ontario could develop test kits by themselves in parallel.
Long term care is only a part of Ontario's population. Dough Ford already called in military for help. What else could you do? You have spent many 1-hour conferences on this issue.
Another rumor out there was that "COVID-19" was released intentionally from a Wuhan lab. This meant that COVID-19 could be released in Ontario at any time. No matter how long you shut down economy, the second wave would come back, i.e. COVID-19 didn't spread ONLY by human to human.
Some idiot and incompetent health officials claimed that Canada was competent in health care, and they didn't need to follow progress around the world. Grab them to participate in vaccine's clinical trials. Simple, if they were competent, COVID-19 disaster must disappear within 3 weeks in Canada AND vaccines/medical treatment must have been available.
I am not saying that Ontario should open economy this week or next week, btw. However we should focus on discussing this. It could take a week or two to come up with a feasible plan for all Ontario business and people. Business may take another week or two to restart their business in full capacity after you turn on the green light, i.e. economy may practically open in 4 weeks from now (earliest). By the way, physical/social distancing and limited essential trips for food is like "quarantine" for many of us. Quarantine due to COVID-19 positive was like "jail time in medium security prison".
2020-05-07
Many have mentioned about bull and bear fighting every day in any single stock or heavily traded stocks. They talked about the W and V shapes, etc.
By looking at the SPY chart, it's very likely that we will get the W shape as the stock going sideway for about 2 weeks. What would be the catalyst to make W shape happened?
(a) China is on the table for COVID-19's liability.
(b) Economy contracted
(c) Unemployment rate is higher than expected in USA, but stock market is up.
If SPY is waiting to break out - what would be the catalyst? Oil price up? Earning season is almost over.
I am still wondering.
Another factor was "business conduct set by government" created additional costs to retailers or business. Prices will go up to trigger inflation. A wave of bankruptcy is also on the table, because this economic shutdown was almost 2 months, and it could be longer depending on each government.
* If I caught Chamber's [former Cisco CEO] talk correctly in BNN Bloomberg interview of today, around 30% - 40% of US startup declared bankruptcy. How could it be this quick? Did he mention those numbers for the past recessions? I wasn't fully focused on the show.
Government is driving economy by chief medical of staff. This is the most funny joke ever in history.
One of their policies would drive up inflation is physical distancing, 2m apart. Usually our desks are about 1m apart. That would mean: double of office space for the same number of staff OR rental expense increased. Who would absorb this additional expense? If business owners couldn't pass on cost to clients, they would lay off staff and close down. Don't forget that many small businesses are operated at low profit margins.
Ontario’s Premier Dough Ford put in $20M to get proposals from
Ontario’s firms about R&D of COVID-19 vaccines within a year or maximum of
2 years. The start date is April 24th, 2020. Before getting a
vaccine, Ford doesn’t want to restart economy of Ontario; he would rather based
on health and science for that decision.
Does this sound trouble? It meant that Ontario’s economy could be
frozen up to 2 years. Will business survive after 2 years?
So far, Canada’s chief of healthcare Theresa Tam refers to kind of
a prediction model to forecast the severity of COVID-19 including numbers of
possible deaths.
The model is pure statistics based on previous data, and
mathematical formula to project future events or numbers. This is kind of
expert or artificial intelligent system. This is a guessing system in short.
Have they analyzed why physical distancing didn’t work? COVID-19 symptoms
would incubate and surface after 14 days. Why couldn’t we understand the
current spread and rising numbers of infected people after freezing 30 days?
Why didn’t we search for answer of the “real” source of COVID-19,
so we could stop, eliminate, or limit the second or third wave of this disease?
Did some groups have COVID-19 in test tubes and keep spreading? Do we still
allow infected people coming to Canada, so it’s unrest?
In brief, people intelligence should out perform AI or expert
systems. Have you ask those mathematicians developed that system to assure
about its accuracy? How smart are those mathematicians? Are they reliable? I
saw that Ms. Tam has been revising that “forecast” number repeatedly.
2020-04-28
Ontario couldn't come up with concrete plan to reopen economy, because they're spending too much time listening to those incompetent health officials.
First of all, those health care officials had a chance to come up with physical distancing and economic shutting down for 5 weeks. The number of fatality and infected due to COVID-19 must come down, but it went up. This proved that their strategy didn't work. However health officials wanted to extend their strategies longer at the expense of other people's bread and butter (business and employment) for their own reputation and food.
Second, those health officials wanted to wait for vaccines available, which may take 18 months to develop. Nobody guaranteed vaccines, if any, would work on human. Those health officials dare not to volunteer in clinical trials. Why? Dough Ford was relying on those to make decisions on vital parts of Ontario's well being, i.e. health and economy?
Those health officials CARE about their own business, i.e. vaccines, medical treatment, COVID-19 test kits, pandemic policies, etc., but they ignore other business of employment. They're not on the same page as the rest of Ontarians.
Many things must be done in parallel based on data and facts that have been gathered since COVID-19 crisis. Data and facts have been changing every day with new findings.
COVID-19 test kits and vaccines must be done by Ontario's firms? Who demanded those? Which business? How long it would take (months or years)? and what is the expense?
So far, a South Korean firm had come up with a fast COVID-19 test kit, which was purchased by Americans. Ontario could purchase those (weeks). If they don't have capacity, we could pay royalty fees or license it to manufacture in Ontario, i.e. a couple of weeks. Ontario could develop test kits by themselves in parallel.
Long term care is only a part of Ontario's population. Dough Ford already called in military for help. What else could you do? You have spent many 1-hour conferences on this issue.
Another rumor out there was that "COVID-19" was released intentionally from a Wuhan lab. This meant that COVID-19 could be released in Ontario at any time. No matter how long you shut down economy, the second wave would come back, i.e. COVID-19 didn't spread ONLY by human to human.
Some idiot and incompetent health officials claimed that Canada was competent in health care, and they didn't need to follow progress around the world. Grab them to participate in vaccine's clinical trials. Simple, if they were competent, COVID-19 disaster must disappear within 3 weeks in Canada AND vaccines/medical treatment must have been available.
I am not saying that Ontario should open economy this week or next week, btw. However we should focus on discussing this. It could take a week or two to come up with a feasible plan for all Ontario business and people. Business may take another week or two to restart their business in full capacity after you turn on the green light, i.e. economy may practically open in 4 weeks from now (earliest). By the way, physical/social distancing and limited essential trips for food is like "quarantine" for many of us. Quarantine due to COVID-19 positive was like "jail time in medium security prison".
2020-05-07
Many have mentioned about bull and bear fighting every day in any single stock or heavily traded stocks. They talked about the W and V shapes, etc.
By looking at the SPY chart, it's very likely that we will get the W shape as the stock going sideway for about 2 weeks. What would be the catalyst to make W shape happened?
(a) China is on the table for COVID-19's liability.
(b) Economy contracted
(c) Unemployment rate is higher than expected in USA, but stock market is up.
If SPY is waiting to break out - what would be the catalyst? Oil price up? Earning season is almost over.
I am still wondering.
Another factor was "business conduct set by government" created additional costs to retailers or business. Prices will go up to trigger inflation. A wave of bankruptcy is also on the table, because this economic shutdown was almost 2 months, and it could be longer depending on each government.
* If I caught Chamber's [former Cisco CEO] talk correctly in BNN Bloomberg interview of today, around 30% - 40% of US startup declared bankruptcy. How could it be this quick? Did he mention those numbers for the past recessions? I wasn't fully focused on the show.
Government is driving economy by chief medical of staff. This is the most funny joke ever in history.
One of their policies would drive up inflation is physical distancing, 2m apart. Usually our desks are about 1m apart. That would mean: double of office space for the same number of staff OR rental expense increased. Who would absorb this additional expense? If business owners couldn't pass on cost to clients, they would lay off staff and close down. Don't forget that many small businesses are operated at low profit margins.
One of main differences between employees in private sectors and
those health officials is: health officials command annual salaries between
$300K - $500K and guarantee of jobs regardless of economy status.
2020-05-09
People don't like to wear masks. However, comparing a mask vs. 2m physical distancing, wearing a mask would be a better choice for social activity and work/business place.
2m physical distancing would likely double rental expenses that many companies couldn't pass on costs to their consumers.
Other questions would be quality of masks and its cost.
We would have to change disposal masks sometimes during the day, thus masks must be inexpensive, i.e. around C$0.10 each.
Masks must be in good quality for its purpose, i.e. screen out small particles effectively. It would be better if masks were made in Canada or selected countries.
As shown in the article below, we would be paying China for a symbolic mask in exchange for nothing, i.e. no protection but uncomfortable.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/feds-reject-eight-million-n95-masks-from-a-single-distributor/ar-BB13OAU0?ocid=spartandhp
People don't like to wear masks. However, comparing a mask vs. 2m physical distancing, wearing a mask would be a better choice for social activity and work/business place.
2m physical distancing would likely double rental expenses that many companies couldn't pass on costs to their consumers.
Other questions would be quality of masks and its cost.
We would have to change disposal masks sometimes during the day, thus masks must be inexpensive, i.e. around C$0.10 each.
Masks must be in good quality for its purpose, i.e. screen out small particles effectively. It would be better if masks were made in Canada or selected countries.
As shown in the article below, we would be paying China for a symbolic mask in exchange for nothing, i.e. no protection but uncomfortable.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/feds-reject-eight-million-n95-masks-from-a-single-distributor/ar-BB13OAU0?ocid=spartandhp
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