Chance
of rate cut rising as markets anxiously await details of Trudeau’s stimulus
rescue
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Some commentators mentioned that BoC should print money or buy public debts to
stimulate economy. Some said that US Fed had printed tons of money but USD is
still strong.
If you looked back the years 2008-2012, CAD was traded at par or higher than
USD.
The only reason for jumping USD was due to currency traders. They have seen US
have crunched out more than 200K jobs a month for many months in a row. Of course,
US employees would have money to spend in USD. At that time the interest rate
of USA was around 0%-0.25%. BoC rate was around 1%. Canadian population is
around 1/10 of USA, thus we need to churn out around 20K jobs a month to get
higher CAD.
Strong currency requires strong job growth.
Printing money should be the last resort as tax payers would suffer the
consequences of lower Lonnie. The current exchange rate of CAD is low enough as
compared to USD, i.e. around $0.72 USD. Lower CAD would create huge inflation,
and Canadians have been stretched with debts.
The best bet would be buying corporate bonds, because federal debts and
provincial debts have been so high already. Let's corporates take risks to hire
and expand business, which is their best expertise - not government expertise.
During financial crisis, US governments have loaned US banks in exchange for
prefer shares or bonds with interests, thus US banks were motivated to pay back
loans. At the present the rate is close to zero, thus business wouldn't be
motivated to pay back, thus a maximum term, e.g. 3 yrs or 5 years, should be in
place.
Source: http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/chance-of-rate-cut-rising-as-markets-anxiously-await-details-of-trudeaus-stimulus-rescue
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2016-01-07
BoC also considers negative rates.
* Looking at ECB using negative rates
-They have caused panicking among bond traders moving money around and yelling
at governments. They eventually pay Germany to keep their money. EU is not out
of the wood with negative rates.
* US was using QE and low interest rates [0.25% not negative]. US is out of
recession and increases interest rates. US did invest in US companies during
the late financial crisis.
* QE also lowers currency exchange rates and better bet than lowering key
interest rate. Doing QE in business would create jobs.
Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadians-should-get-used-to-lower-dollar-higher-inflation-poloz-says/article28047394/
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An example of BoC do QE by lending money to business through local banks.
* With the current rate of 0.5% and 1% fee by local banks, business would get
wonderful loans for 1.5%. Business would expand and start hiring.
* QE would bring down CAD. However, BoC could raise rate to 1%, i.e. business
get a loan of 2%, which is still excellent. CAD would go up a little and BoC
have sent a clear message to housing market, i.e. rate does go up.
-> Housing market players have speculated rates would never go up and house
prices would go up forever.
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